中山大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(5)：118-125,8.
基于Copula函数和SPEI的广东北江流域干旱频率分析
Drought Frequency Analysis of the Beijiang River Basin in Guangdong Based on Copula Function and SPEI
摘要
Abstract
Daily precipitation and mean temperature data of 18 meteorological stations over the Beijiang River Basin of Guangdong for the last fifty years were analyzed to classify anomalously dry conditions u-sing the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI).In this study,drought variables (drought duration,drought severity and drought severity peak)were identified using run-length theory, 1 1 probability distribution functions were adopted to analyze the probability behaviors of drought severity and drought severity peak at 18 meteorological stations.The L-moment technique is used to estimate the parameters of the probability functions,the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method (K-S )is accepted to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the probability functions and evaluate the ten-year return periods values.Based on the Genest-Rivest method and the tail dependency of random variable,GH copula that has up tail de-pendency is used for drought variable connect function.The Kendall rank correlation coefficient method is used to estimate the parameters of GH copula function.Then we comprehensively analyze the spatial vari-ability of joint probability distribution of two indices.The spatial variability of probability distribution of one drought variable and joint distribution of two drought variables can provide the scientific basis for a-nalysis of the local water volume balance and reduce drought disaster risk.关键词
Copula函数/SPEI/干旱频率分析/北江流域/广东Key words
copula function/SPEI/drought frequency analysis/Beijiang river basin/Guangdong分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘占明,陈子遷,黄强,刘曾美..基于Copula函数和SPEI的广东北江流域干旱频率分析[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）,2014,(5):118-125,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（41371498）和2009年广东省水利创新研究基金（2009-41）联合资助项目 （）
