电力系统自动化Issue(16)：8-15,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141017007
光伏发电出力的条件预测误差概率分布估计方法
A Method of Probabilistic Distribution Estimation of Conditional Forecast Error for Photovoltaic Power Generation
摘要
Abstract
Owing to the poor predictability of photovoltaic power,its probabilistic forecast provides more information about the underlying uncertainties compared with the traditional point forecast.This paper proposes a Copula theory based method to estimate the conditional forecasting error in photovoltaic power generation.The joint probability between the actual power output and its forecast is modeled using the Copula function.The conditional forecast error corresponding to each photovoltaic forecast level is then derived from this joint probability model.Considering the fact that weather has a strong impact on the accuracy of photovoltaic forecasting,cluster technique is used to divide the data according to weather types.A joint distribution model each is developed for the respective weather types to estimate the forecast error.Empirical study is carried out to validate the proposed model using the data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014.The results show that the proposed method has improved both the calibration and sharpness of photovoltaic generation probabilistic forecast compared with the traditional normal-distribution-based probabilistic forecast method.关键词
光伏发电/Copula/点预测/概率性预测/条件预测误差/天气类型Key words
photovoltaic power generation/Copula/point forecast/probabilistic forecast/conditional forecast error/weather type引用本文复制引用
赵唯嘉,张宁,康重庆,王跃峰,李鹏,马烁..光伏发电出力的条件预测误差概率分布估计方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,(16):8-15,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51307092,51325702) （51307092,51325702）
国家电网公司科技项目“新能源发电接纳能力评估分析平台研发与示范应用”。This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51307092,No.51325702) and State Grid Corporation of China （No.51307092,No.51325702）
