电力系统自动化Issue(16)：29-36,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20140926011
基于气象测量场的爬坡时段区域风功率预测
Regional Wind Power Forecasting During Ramp Period Using Meteorological Measurement Field Data
摘要
Abstract
With large scale wind farms integrating into electric power systems,the risks caused by the wind power ramp continuously increases.Accurate wind power ramp forecasting is of great importance for the secure and economic operation of power systems.A regional wind power forecasting method during the ramp periods is proposed by using meteorological measurement field data.The wind speed matrix extracted from the measurement field is decomposed into various spatial modes and principal components through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,which encodes regional wind speed field dynamics during ramp periods.The mapping between the decomposed principal components and regional wind power is constructed by using multiple variable nonlinear regression method.To address wind speed prediction error,the interval EOF decomposition is used,adapting the proposed forecasting method to the uncertainty of measurement data.The forecasting results from a region with multiple wind farms demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the precision of regional wind power forecasting during ramp periods,and shows strong robustness against wind speed prediction error.关键词
气象测量场/风电爬坡/经验正交函数/区间数/非线性回归Key words
meteorological measurement field/wind ramp/empirical orthogonal function (EOF)/interval number/nonlinear regression引用本文复制引用
刘申,褚晓东,张文..基于气象测量场的爬坡时段区域风功率预测[J].电力系统自动化,2015,(16):29-36,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51207082,51177093) （51207082,51177093）
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A101)。This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51207082,No.51177093) and National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2011AA05A101) （863计划）
