郑州大学学报（医学版）Issue(4)：469-472,4.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2015.04.005
重症手足口病心肺衰竭危险因素筛选及其预测模型的建立∗
Screening of risk factors of severe hand-foot-mouth disease with cardiop-ulmonary failure and establishment of forecasting model
摘要
Abstract
Aim: To identify the risk factors associated with cardiopulmonary failure( CPF) in infants with severe hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD), and develop a reliable prediction system for it. Methods: Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between risk factors and CPF. The predictive effect of the model was evaluated. Results: In the multivariable analysis, 4 variables [age≤24 months(OR = 2. 619, 95% CI = 1. 609 - 4. 262), days of fever > 3 d(OR =4. 167, 95% CI = 2. 591 - 6. 703, hyperglycaemia( OR = 8. 235, 95% CI = 4. 356 - 15. 571) and leucocytosis( OR =2. 661, 95% CI = 1. 695 - 4. 178)] in the risk evaluation model remained independent predictors of CPF. When the pre-diction was performed based on the existing data using the present model, the sensitivity, specificity and consistency of the model were 67. 4% (31 / 46), 85. 7% (78 / 91) and 79. 5% (109 / 137), respectively. Conclusion: The forecasting model was a quantitative and effective tool for predicting CPF in infants with severe HFMD.关键词
手足口病/心肺衰竭/危险因素/预测模型Key words
hand-foot-mouth disease/cardiopulmonary failure/risk factor/forecasting model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
冯慧芬,赵秋民,段广才,张卫东,朱光..重症手足口病心肺衰竭危险因素筛选及其预测模型的建立∗[J].郑州大学学报（医学版）,2015,(4):469-472,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目81473030 （）
郑州市科技攻关普通项目141PPTGG440 （）
