人民长江Issue(15)：6-9,4.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.15.002
基于ARIMA模型的云南气象干旱预测研究
Study on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMA
摘要
Abstract
The drought of Yunnan Province has caused wide public concern in recent years. To predict the drought of Yunnan Province in future period, the time series of monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature from 29 metrological stations in Yunnan Province during 1961 to 2013 were used to calculate the SPEI, and ARIMA models was built based on the SPEI. After calibration and validation, the model parameter and expression were determined. Then the annual SPEI from 2014 to 2023 in dif-ferent regions of Yunnan Province were predicted by the model. The result showed that the meteorological drought will be contin-ued in the future period, some countermeasures and suggestions for drought resistance are put forward.关键词
ARIMA模型/干旱预测/标准化降水蒸散指数/云南Key words
ARIMA model/drought prediction/SPEI/Yunnan Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
白致威,张雷,王杰,黄英..基于ARIMA模型的云南气象干旱预测研究[J].人民长江,2015,(15):6-9,4.基金项目
云南省科技计划项目(2012CA021) （2012CA021）
云南省发改委科研课题(201306) （201306）
