中国电机工程学报Issue(16)：4025-4034,10.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.16.004
基于机会约束规划的虚拟电厂调度风险分析
Risk Analysis on Dispatch of Virtual Power Plant Based on Chance Constrained Programming
摘要
Abstract
Chance constrained programming is an effective method for dealing with various uncertain factors, such as power fluctuation of variable generation, error in load forecasting, and the possibility of unit outage resulting from failure, etc, in the operation of virtual power plant (VPP). This paper proposed a dispatch model of VPP based on chance constrained programming theory, which maximized the benefits and considered the constraint of spinning reserve requirement at a given confidence level, and the genetic algorithm based on stochastic stimulation was selected to solve the problem. Considering that there may exist risk that some power demand cannot be met, due to the uncertainty inherent in the chance constrained programming, an index quantifying the risk was presented, and the risk in the VPP scheduling was analyzed in different cases, at different confidence levels and different risk factors. Besides, how to find the balance between benefits and risk of VPP and how to select the best confidence level in chance constrained programming were also discussed.关键词
虚拟电厂/经济调度/风险分析/机会约束规划/不确定因素/最佳置信水平Key words
virtual power plant (VPP)/economic dispatch/risk analysis/chance constrained programming/uncertain factors/optimal confidence level分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
范松丽,艾芊,贺兴..基于机会约束规划的虚拟电厂调度风险分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,(16):4025-4034,10.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAA01B04)。 The National Key Technology Support Program (2013BAA01B04) （2013BAA01B04）
