海洋科学Issue(7)：75-85,11.DOI:10.11759/hykx20140721001
WRF、EC和T639模式在福建沿海冬半年大风预报中的检验与应用
Test and application of WRF, EC and T639 Models in strong wind forecasting in Fujian Coast in winter half year
摘要
Abstract
Wind speed and direction at 10 m height forecast by three models including WRF, EC-thin and T639 have been compared with hourly maximum wind got by automatic weather station in Fujian coast in winter half year. Results showed that the prevailing wind direction was north-easterly wind, the space-time distribution of strong wind was uneven and the main characters of strong wind were pulsatile, jumping and local. The simulation effects of strong wind forecast by three models have been discussed, and the results showed that EC-thin and WRF are relatively accurate and T639 is not reliable. For wind speed, the forecast results of three models were less than the maximum wind. The mean absolute deviation of forecasting speed results was greater than those in harbor and coast, which gradually reduced from coast to inland, and from middle coast to southern and northern coast. The forecasting results of wind direction were worse than wind speed. The forecasting direction results of WRF and EC-thin whose deviation was between 45 and 50 degree can be referenced. The mean absolute deviation of forecasting direction results was greater than those in harbor and coast, and those of buoys were greatest. When the wind speed was equal to or greater than seven, the wind was divided to different grades for testing. It turned out that the mean absolute deviation of lower speed was less than that of higher speed, and the deviation of forecasting direction results was greatly reduced, which can be referenced.关键词
WRF (Weather Research and Forecast)/EC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) -thin/T639(TL639L60)/the test of strong wind/winter/Fujian coastKey words
WRF (Weather Research and Forecast)/EC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) -thin/T639(TL639L60)/the test of strong wind/winter/Fujian coast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曾瑾瑜,韩美,吴幸毓,林青,廖廓..WRF、EC和T639模式在福建沿海冬半年大风预报中的检验与应用[J].海洋科学,2015,(7):75-85,11.基金项目
福建省气象局自研项目(2015z02) （2015z02）
福建省气象局青年科技专项(2015q26) （2015q26）
中国气象局小型基建项目“海洋气象精细化业务系统建设”子项目 （）
