农业资源与环境学报Issue(4)：343-353,11.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2014.0359
基于MCE-CA耦合模型的嘉兴市土地利用预测情景下生态敏感性评价
Evaluation of Ecological Sensitivity of Land Use in Jiaxing City Based on MCE-CA Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on three periods TM remote sensing image data in Jiaxing City of Year 2000, 2005 and 2010 in the national ecological envi-ronment remote sensing investigation and assessment project(2000—2010), by using MCE-CA model, the forecast land use of year 2005 and 2010 was obtained. Compared the forecast land use with the true land use of year 2005 and 2010, the Kappa index was 0.94 and 0.92, it proved that the simulation accuracy of MCE-CA model was high. The land use pattern in 2015 and 2020 could also be obtained by using MCE-CA model. With the rate of land use change intensity ratio and ecological service change value ratio, the land use ecological sensitivity index could be obtained. By using ArcGIS spatial overlay analysis to analyze the process, the sensitivity function distribution could be ob-tained. It concluded that the landscape pattern changed seriously in Jiaxing City from year 2000 to 2020, the farm land decreased greatly, the construction land increased greatly. The ecological sensitivity increased dramatically from year 2000 to 2010, and the ecological environment was threatened more and more seriously. In the situation of the forest, grass and wetlands could not be transformed into construction land, farm land and uncultivated land could be transformed into construction land from year 2010 to 2020, the ecological sensitivity decreased, e-cological environment would be improved. Above all, the land use and ecological sensitivity prediction results is propitious to sustainable de-velopment planning in Jiaxing City.关键词
土地利用动态模拟/MCE-CA模型/生态敏感性Key words
land use dynamic simulation/MCE-CA model/ecological sensitivity分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
荣月静,张慧,赵显富..基于MCE-CA耦合模型的嘉兴市土地利用预测情景下生态敏感性评价[J].农业资源与环境学报,2015,(4):343-353,11.基金项目
国家环保公益性行业科研专项“道路建设工程生态环境影响定量评价技术和方法” （）
