大气科学Issue(5)：901-910,10.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14216
RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估
Projection of Monsoon Area and Precipitation in China under the RCP4.5 Scenario
摘要
Abstract
The capabilities of 46 CMIP5 (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase five) models for simulating the annual, summer, and winter precipitation climatology over China are first examined using the outputs of these models from historical data for the period 1986−2004. Eighteen models are then chosen to project the changes of monsoon area, monsoon precipitation, and monsoon precipitation intensity over China under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results show that the monsoon area, monsoon precipitation, and monsoon precipitation intensity will increase in the 21st century, particularly during 2081−2099. The increase in the monsoon precipitation is mainly derived from the increase in the monsoon area. Both thermal and dynamic conditions will be favorable for increased monsoon precipitation intensity and greater water vapor transport into eastern China, resulting in the expansion of the monsoon area in China.关键词
CMIP5气候模式/季风区/季风降水/RCP4.5情景/预估Key words
CMIP5/Monsoon area/Monsoon precipitation/RCP4.5 scenario/Projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
姜江,姜大膀,林一骅..RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估[J].大气科学,2015,(5):901-910,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2012CB955401，国家自然科学基金项目41375084 （）
