交通信息与安全Issue(4)：82-86,5.DOI:10.3963/j.issn1674-4861.2015.04.013
高速公路交通事故救援时间与生存率关系模型研究∗
A Study of the Relationship between Rescue Time and Survival Rate of Traffic Accidents on Freeways using A Cox Regression Model
摘要
Abstract
The rescue time of traffic collisions on expressways has a direct impact on traffic collision fatalities.Based on three consecutive years'collision records of an expressway in east China,the characteristics of rescue time were ana-lyzed in this paper.The impacts of rescue time on the survival rates were studied by using non-parametric estimation methods,and a survival-analysis model of the injuries was developed.Furthermore,factors of survival rates were ana-lyzed with Cox regression models.The results show that the survival rates of the injuries decrease with the increase of res-cue time.The survival rates can decrease to below 75% in about 14 minutes after the occurrence of collisions,so the inju-ries should be given necessary emergency rescue within 14 minutes.Meanwhile,further analysis of factors indicates the time of collisions is a risk factor of survival,and the risk of death in the nighttime is 3.46 times higher than in the day-time.关键词
交通安全/高速公路/救援时间/生存分析/非参数方法/Cox 比例风险回归模型Key words
traffic safety/expressway/rescue time/survival analysis/non-parametric method/Cox proportional hazard regression model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
杨惠敏,陈雨人,方守恩,袁建华..高速公路交通事故救援时间与生存率关系模型研究∗[J].交通信息与安全,2015,(4):82-86,5.基金项目
公安部重点实验室开放课题(批准号:2014ZDSYSKFKT06)资助 （批准号:2014ZDSYSKFKT06）
