气象与环境学报Issue(4)：107-112,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2015.04.016
基于对流参数南宁地区雷暴天气潜势预报方法研究
A thunderstorm potential forecasting method based on convection parameters in Nanning region
摘要
Abstract
Based on the ground observed meteorological data and radiosonde data from 2003 to 2012 in Nanning region,relationships between thunderstorm weather and convection parameters were analyzed.The results show that the values of convection parameters are significantly different in a day with and without thunderstorm.The proba-bility of thunderstorm is a significantly linear correlation with integral humidity (IQ),K index (KI)and lifting in-dex (LI).The probability of thunderstorm is nearly unchanged after total-totals index (TT),showalter index (SI) and convective available potential energy (CAPE)exceed a specific value.The binaryzation value of convection parameters is indicative to thunderstorm better than the actual values.A probabilistic forecasting model for thunder-storm is established using a binary logistic regression method,taking binary convection parameters as factors.The probabilistic forecasting model is proved to be effective in 2013,which is available in 6-hour thunderstorm potential short-term forecasting.关键词
雷暴/对流参数/二值化/二值 Logistic回归法/概率预报模型Key words
Thunderstorms/Convection parameter/Binaryzation/Binary logistic regression method/Probabilistic forecasting model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
梁维亮,屈梅芳,翟丽萍..基于对流参数南宁地区雷暴天气潜势预报方法研究[J].气象与环境学报,2015,(4):107-112,6.基金项目
广西自然科学基金项目（2012GXNSFAA053191）、广西自然科学基金项目（2013GXNSFAA019288）和中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2014－053）共同资助。 （）
