农业现代化研究Issue(5)：790-795,6.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2015.0114
基于不同属性的农产品长期价格形成与波动研究
Research on the long-term price formation and fluctuation of agricultural products with different attributes
摘要
Abstract
Price form ation and fluctuation of agricultural products w ith different attributes are different. B ased on 1965-2013annualdataofbanana,orange,rice,wheat,palm oilandsoybeanoil,thispaperanalyzedthefactorsaffecting the long-term price form ation and fluctuation of agricultural products on the international m arket by estim ating the long-term elasticities and the contributions of these factors to each agricultural product price from 1997-2004 to 2005-2013.Resultsshow that1)pricesofagriculturalproductsontheinternationalmarketincreasewithfluctuations;2) T he price of previous period is the m ain factor affecting current price, each agricultural product’s previous price significantlyaffectitscurrentpriceandtheimpactonfruitsismoresignificantthanongrainsandvegetableoils;3)Due totheexpansionofdemandforgrainsandvegetableoilcausedbyincreasingoilprice,oilpricesignificantlyaffectsthe vegetable oil and w heat prices, but not fruit prices;4) Stock-to-use ratios significantly affect all agricultural products except banana and the im pact on grains is m ore significant than on others;A nd 5) incom e and inflation have significant im pacts on fruit and grain prices. Facing the increasing prices of agricultural products on the international m arket, to m aintain the dom estic prices stable, this paper provides the follow ing suggestions:increasing price increase tolerance appropriately, strengthening the transparency of supply and dem and inform ation on dom estic agricultural products and enhancing the dom estic agriculturalproductreserves.关键词
农产品/价格形成/影响因素/贡献度/水果/谷物/植物油Key words
agricultural products/long-term price form ation/factors/contribution/fruit/grain/vegetable oil分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
颜小挺,祁春节..基于不同属性的农产品长期价格形成与波动研究[J].农业现代化研究,2015,(5):790-795,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目（12&ZD048）；教育部博士点基金项目（20110146110008）；国家现代农业（柑橘）产业技术体系（MATS）专项（CARS-27-07B）。 （）
