农业现代化研究Issue(5)：826-833,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2015.0115
养殖规模化对平缓生猪价格周期效应的中美比较与现实启示
Comparison and implications of the impacts from scale production of hogs on stabilizing hog prices in the US and China
摘要
Abstract
H og production scale is sm all w ith low degree of concentration and significant cyclical price fluctuations in C hina. Scale production is one of the factors affecting the hog price am ong the m any of other factors. From the perspective of large-scale farm ing, this paper analyzed the C hinese hog price cycle and the scale production process in the U S over the last thirty years. R esults show that the degree of scale production, the prolonged hog price cycles and narrow price volatility play a role of stabilizer to som e extent.B y com paring the difference betw een C hina and the U S in the influence on the hog price cycle by the scale production from four aspects, including the scale degree, the driving factors, the scale effect, and the policy effect, this paper found that the causes for the difference betw een the tw o countries are:the farm ing structure ofbackyard production and sm allfam ily farm production in C hina,top-dow n driving factorsofChina'shogindustry,therelativelylow leveloftechnologyandfarmingsubsidydifferences.Inordertodevelop our large scale production and achieve the target of easing the hog price fluctuation cycle, this paper suggests:1) T o im prove the strategic planning for large scale production;2) T o upgrade the structure of the industry;3) T o encourage farm ers to use hog futures and options;A nd 4) to increase financial support and to encourage the integration of the hog industry chain.关键词
养殖规模化/生猪价格周期/蛛网模型/规模效应/生猪期货Key words
scale production/hog price cycles/cobw eb theorem/scale effect/hog futures分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张爱军..养殖规模化对平缓生猪价格周期效应的中美比较与现实启示[J].农业现代化研究,2015,(5):826-833,8.基金项目
山东省社会科学规划研究重点项目（13BJJJ02）；济南市哲学社会科学规划项目（JNSK15C17）。 （）
