中国人口·资源与环境Issue(10)：11-17,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2015.10.002
全国碳市场与区域经济协调发展
National Emissions Trading and Coordinated Development of Regional Economies
摘要
Abstract
The establishment of nationwide carbon market has become one of the important means to combat climate change in China. Given the diversity of resource endowments and spatial heterogeneity of economic development across different regions, there is great uncertainty about the impacts of a nationwide carbon market on regional economies. This paper develops a multi-regional CGE model, which is in combination with an emissions trading model, to simulate and assess the impacts of a nationwide carbon market on the coordinated development of regional economies. Six emissions trading ( ET) scenarios are designed according to different initial quota allocation mechanisms, including three allocation criteria of Historic Emission, Ability to Pay, Twelfth Five Year Plan, and two allocation methods of free allocation and hybrid allocation—free allocation with energy sectors while auction with energy-intensive sectors. The results show that national GDP and welfare increase by 0. 027%-0. 056% and 32. 373-50. 756 billion yuan under ET scenarios, respectively, as compared with the non-emissions trading (NET) scenarios. It indicates that a nationwide carbon market can effectively reduce macroeconomic costs for the whole society, improving regional welfare and reducing regional economic disparities. Industry output also decreases in a smaller range under ET scenarios, as total output increases 0. 335%-0. 473% compared with NET scenarios. It is more significant in the electric power industry output, the decline of which is only 1. 829%-1. 895% under ET scenarios while it is almost 6. 079%-6. 440% under NET scenarios. At the same time, a large-scale trading funds of about 458. 02-3 925. 09 million yuan is transferred from eastern region to central and western regions under the nationwide carbon market, of which the resource regions have an inflow of 397. 20-1 741. 90 million yuan. These trading funds can be further used by resource regions to invest in CO2 mitigation technologies. Additionally, the impacts of a nationwide carbon market are closely related to the initial quota allocation mechanism. Eastern regions benefit more from the establishment of nationwide carbon market under the Ability to Pay criterion, nevertheless, central and western regions benefit more under the Historic Emission and Twelfth Five Year Plan criteria. The comparison of free allocation and auction shows that a hybrid allocation method of free allocation and auction is preferable in the preliminary stage of a nationwide carbon market in China.关键词
统一碳市场/区域经济/多区域CGE模型/配额分配机制Key words
nationwide carbon market/regional economy/multi-regional CGE model/initial quota allocation mechanism分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴洁,夏炎,范英,刘婧宇..全国碳市场与区域经济协调发展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(10):11-17,7.基金项目
中国科学院先导专项“我国碳减排成本及减排路径选择研究”(编号:XDA05150700) （编号:XDA05150700）
国家自然科学基金国际重大合作项目“我国统一碳市场建立的条件、机制设计与社会经济影响分析”(编号:71210005) （编号:71210005）
国家自然科学基金项目“基于成本有效的中国区域间碳排放权交易潜力及其对区域产业格局的影响机理与实证研究”(编号:71203213)。 （编号:71203213）
