人口与经济Issue(3)：33-42,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2015.03.004
广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析
The Spatial Aging Pattern and Its Driving Forces in Guangdong
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of population aging at the prefectual cities level in Guangdong Province and the underlying driving forces using three representative years�Six variables are adopted to classify the population aging in Guangdong into five stages: young, early growth, late growth, early aging, and middle aging�Spatial autocorrelation model is used to detect the spatial structure, and spatial Markov chain is employed to study space⁃time dynamics of population change�The underlying driving forces are analyzed from the perspectives of socioeconomic and educational perspectives�It is noted that migration of younger population from other provinces in China has slowed down the progress of aging in Guangdong�However, many regions in Guangdong have been the aging society�When the dividend of sufficient labor force comes to the end, Guangdong should accelerate economic transformation and upgrading the economic structure to cope with an aging society.关键词
人口老龄化/模糊聚类/空间分布/趋势/空间自相关Key words
aging population/fuzzy classification/spatial distribution/trends/spatial autocorrelation分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
易卫华,叶信岳,王哲野..广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析[J].人口与经济,2015,(3):33-42,10.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“黄河流域区域差异时空对比分析”（13JJD790008）。 （）
