物理学报Issue(4)：1-8,8.DOI:10.7498/aps.64.049201
北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国四季日平均气温的模拟性能评估∗
Performance evaluation of the simulated daily average temp erature series in four seasons in China by Beijing Climate Center climate system mo del
摘要
Abstract
In the present paper, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is first used to analyze the daily average temperature records in four seasons in China, and the results show that the seasonal temperature records exhibit long-range correlation in China, especially in Xinjiang and Xizang in western China. Based on the long-range correlation in observational temperature records, we use DFA to evaluate the performances of the simulated daily average temperature series in four seasons in China by Beijing Climate Center climate system model (BCC_CSM) (1.1 m), and find that the BCC_CSM (1.1 m) can reflect the long-range correlations in different seasons. In general, the simulated results are best in spring except for the bad performance in Jiangnan. In summer, the simulation performance is poor in middle-east China and most areas in Tibet, especially in the southern North China, western Huanghai, Jiangnan and South China. The long-rang correlation of the simulated data for autumn is stronger in Northeast China, southeast North China, while weaker in the most of Northwest China. In winter, except for the eastern seaboard, the simulated long-range correlations of daily temperature are weaker than that of observational records in most China. And the simulated performance is poor in Northwest China, Southwest China, northern South China, southern Jiangnan and northern Northeast China, especially in the western Tibet.关键词
去趋势波动分析/标度指数/长程相关性/模式性能评估Key words
detrended fluctuation analysis/scaling exponent/long-range correlation/model performance evaluation引用本文复制引用
赵珊珊,何文平..北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国四季日平均气温的模拟性能评估∗[J].物理学报,2015,(4):1-8,8.基金项目
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(批准号:2012CB955902,2013CB430204)和国家自然科学基金(批准号:41275074,41475073)资助的课题.* Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos.2012CB955902,2013CB430204) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41275074,41475073) （批准号:2012CB955902,2013CB430204）
