大气科学Issue(6)：1123-1135,13.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224
不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估
Changes in Climate Extremes over China in a 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C Warmer World
摘要
Abstract
Due to human-induced global warming, global Average Surface Air Temperature (ASAT) will reach certain thresholds with reference to the pre-industrial period. Quantitative assessments of climate extremes across China when reaching these thresholds are important indicators in disaster risk management and policymaking. In this study, based on outputs of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), 27 climate-extreme indices computed with a consistent methodology are used to quantify the changes in the mean and extreme climate across China when the 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C thresholds under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios are exceeded. In general, the ASAT warms faster over China than the global mean in the 21st century. Extreme warm events (e.g., warm nights, warm days, and tropical nights) increase greatly, while extreme cold events (e.g., cold nights, cold days, and frost days) decrease. When the 4°C threshold is exceeded, warm nights index (spatially averaged over China) are projected to show an increase of about 49.9% relative to the reference period. Accompanied by the increase in global mean temperature, the northern part of China will see more precipitation when the 2°C threshold is exceeded. Extreme precipitation shows obvious intensification in both frequency and magnitude when different temperature thresholds are exceeded. China is dominated by lengthening heavy and very heavy precipitation days and increasing maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount increases by 12.5 mm and 17.0 mm when the global ASAT becomes 3°C and 4°C warmer, respectively. The changes are found to be more pronounced under higher temperature thresholds. Southwest China, however, exhibits larger changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation than other regions.关键词
阈值/极端气候/预估Key words
Threshold/Climate extremes/Projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈晓晨,徐影,姚遥..不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J].大气科学,2015,(6):1123-1135,13.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项GYHY201306019，国家科技支撑项目2014BAJ01B01，中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201525，中国瑞士合作项目ACCCII （）
