大气科学Issue(6)：1165-1178,14.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1501.14307
GRAPES_MESO中时间步长和空间分辨率对于预报效果的影响1
The Impacts of Time-Step Size and Spatial Resolution on the Prediction Skill of the GRAPES-MESO Forecast System
摘要
Abstract
This study considered the impacts of time-step size and spatial resolution on the prediction skill of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) mesoscale numerical forecast system (GRAPES-MESO) for a given parameter set. The forecasts of geopotential height (H), temperature (T), and the zonal (U) and meridional (V)components of wind at 700, 500, and 200 hPa, were assessed, as well as surface precipitation. The results showed that, at a spatial resolution of 0.3°×0.3°, the prediction skill of almost all variables, including H, T, U and V, in the three vertical layers were optimized at a particular time step of approximately 240 s. This raises the possibility of an optimal time-step size for a particular spatial resolution, and the explanation for this relationship might be related to the computational uncertainty principle. The operational forecasts based on a spatial resolution of 0.15°×0.15° and a time-step size of 90 s were also compared with the best results obtained previously, in which the spatial resolution was 0.3°×0.3° and the time step was 240 s. The latter configuration possessed higher skill than the operational forecasts for all variables, indicating that the prediction quality may not be significantly improved by an increase in the spatial resolution of the model.关键词
GRAPES_MESO/时间步长/空间分辨率/预报效果Key words
GRAEPS_MESO/Time-step size/Spatial resolution/Model prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘德强,冯杰,李建平,王金成..GRAPES_MESO中时间步长和空间分辨率对于预报效果的影响1[J].大气科学,2015,(6):1165-1178,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目41375110、41175069 （）
