电网技术Issue(8)：2165-2172,8.
考虑参数不确定的电网可靠性概率分布特征
Research on Probability Distribution Characteristics of Bulk Power System Reliability Considering Parameter Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
The influence of parameter uncertainty on probability distribution characteristics of bulk power system reliability is researched, which is usually done only for expected indices of bulk power reliability in traditional power system reliability. The marginal probability distributions of pre-failure working time and post-failure repairing time of the component under parameter uncertainty are derived; to avoid the obstacles that the marginal distribution function is too complex to analyze and calculate, the numerical integration is utilized to discretize and characterize the marginal distribution function, and on this basis traditional sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is improved to implement the calculation of marginal probability distribution of reliability indices of bulk power system, in which the parameter uncertainty is taken into account, and the new thinking for the research on probability distribution characteristics of power system reliability under parameter uncertainty is explored. Meanwhile the comparison validation of computation time and efficiency by the proposed method with those by dual-loop Monte Carlo simulation is performed. The correctness and validity of the proposed method are validated by reliability evaluation results of RBTS and IEEE RTS79.关键词
可靠性/概率密度函数/参数不确定性Key words
reliability/probability density function/parameter uncertainty分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
赵渊,郭胤,谢开贵..考虑参数不确定的电网可靠性概率分布特征[J].电网技术,2013,(8):2165-2172,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(50977094)；中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项资助项目(CDJZR11150012)；重庆市自然科学基金(CSTC2011BB6047)。Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (50977094) （50977094）
