工业技术经济Issue(10)：137-144,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2015.10.018
基于经济周期视角及灰色理论的我国碳排放强度影响因素分析
Study on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Intensity Based on the Business Cycle And the Grey Theory
摘要
Abstract
In order to realize the purpose of reducing carbon emission intensity,we need to analyze the influencing factors of it.This paper is from the perspective of the energy intensity,energy structure,industrial structure and economic development level,selected 11 possible influencing factors of carbon emission intensity.At first,the HP filter is used to divide the economic cycle of 1978-2013.According to the data from 1978 to 2013,this paper calculates the integrated incidence degree of the carbon emission intensity and the in-fluencing factors in different business cycles,as also the period from 2014 to 2020 by using the grey correlation model.According the pre-diction data of 2014 to 2020 based on GM(1,1)model,development and changes of the integrated incidence degree of the carbon emission intensity and the influencing factors are calculated and analyzed.In the analysis of influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in differ-ent periods,the policy suggestions of reducing the carbon emission intensity are put forward.关键词
碳排放强度/影响因素/灰色关联分析/经济周期Key words
carbon emission intensity/influencing factors/grey correlation analysis/business cycle分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
谢品杰,黄晨晨..基于经济周期视角及灰色理论的我国碳排放强度影响因素分析[J].工业技术经济,2015,(10):137-144,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目编号:71103120)、教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(项目编号:10YJC790299). （项目编号:71103120）
