华东交通大学学报Issue(1)：58-63,6.
基于指数平滑法对我国私家车保有量的预测
Forecast of China's Private Car Ownership Based on the Exponential Smoothing
摘要
Abstract
The rapid development of economy in our country provides huge development space for private cars. The scientific forecast of private car ownership is the key to the development of China‘s highway traffic short and long term development planning,which is significant for solving a series of problems,such as the traffic congestion,energy crisis,environmental pollution,resource shortage and so on. First of all,according to the change of China’s private car ownership in 2000-2011,using the minimum mean square error principle,this paper selects exponential smoothing coefficient,establishing secondary exponential smoothing model and expo-nential smoothing model for three times. Then the model is used to predict the 2012-2016 car ownership of Chi-na. To make prediction results more reasonable,this paper finally applies the principle of the correlation coeffi-cient to evaluate,selects relative ideal forecast results,thus providing reference for private car ownership deci-sion-making.关键词
指数平滑法/私家车保有量/均方误差/相关指数Key words
exponential smoothing/private car ownership/mean square error/correlation coefficient分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
谌小丽,陈景雅,王坤..基于指数平滑法对我国私家车保有量的预测[J].华东交通大学学报,2013,(1):58-63,6.基金项目
江苏省2012年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX12_0257) （CXLX12_0257）
