海军航空工程学院学报Issue(1)：85-89,5.
基于时间序列分析的装备可用度预测方法
An Equipment Availability Prediction Method Based on Time Series Analysis
摘要
Abstract
The significance of availability prediction of equipment system was proposed. The time series model of availability was put forward, which had characters of non-linearity and non-stationary. The trend element and random element of availability were decomposed based on the singular value decomposition filtering algorithm. Then, the radial basis function neural network trained by particle swarm optimization algorithm and functional co⁃efficient auto regressive model were proposed to solve the problem. This combining method showed the superiori⁃ty of each model, and its effectiveness was verified through example. The results of the prediction show that the function and effect of combining method was better than separate employment of RBF or FAR, and provided an effective means for the availability research.关键词
可用度/神经网络/函数系数自回归模型/时间序列分析Key words
availability/neural network/functional coefficient autoregressive model/time series analysis分类
武器工业引用本文复制引用
杨继坤,徐廷学,董琪,王浩伟..基于时间序列分析的装备可用度预测方法[J].海军航空工程学院学报,2013,(1):85-89,5.基金项目
国防预研课题资助项目(5032011042) （5032011042）
