电力系统保护与控制Issue(1)：14-20,7.
基于混沌特性分析的风速序列混合预测方法
Hybrid prediction method of wind speed based on chaotic characteristic
摘要
Abstract
A hybrid prediction method for wind speed time series with chaotic characteristic is proposed to improve the forecasting performance. The best unstable periodic orbit is resolved by analyzing the dynamic characteristic of the wind speed time series. The prediction value is obtained by the data points near the former best unstable periodic orbit. Another prediction method, chaotic operator network, is also applied to predict the wind speed time series. The dynamic characteristic of the prediction network can be changed by adjusting the control parameters. The fusion prediction results of two different prediction methods are obtained by optimizing the fusion index function. In this way, hybrid prediction of wind speed series can be realized. Simulation results show that the hybrid prediction method can further improve the prediction performance.关键词
风速时间序列/预测/混沌/混合Key words
wind speed time series/prediction/chaos/hybrid分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
修春波,刘新婷,张欣,于婷婷..基于混沌特性分析的风速序列混合预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,(1):14-20,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61203302) （61203302）
天津市自然科学基金(11CYBJC07000) （11CYBJC07000）
