电力系统保护与控制Issue(1)：70-75,6.
用于供电服务中心短期话务量预测的分层相似法
Study on layered similar short-term traffic forecasting method applied to power supply service center
邹云峰 1罗欣 2田诺 1赵燃 2李婧娇2
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省电力公司电力科学研究院，江苏 南京 210008
- 2. 北京清软创新科技有限公司，北京 100084
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
There are many factors which influence the telephone traffic of power supply service center. This paper firstly analyzes the level and the curve shape of the traffic to prove the effect of the type of weeks. Then this paper determines the average temperature, minimum temperature and hourly precipitation data are the other key factors of the development and change of the traffic, especially precipitation is the most important indicator of the curve mutation. Taking into account the difference between the precipitation days and non-precipitation days, the paper proposes a layered similar forecasting method which divides the forecasting result into basic traffic curves and traffic quantity. The basic curve is the predicted result for non-precipitation days, and the traffic quantity and basic traffic curves are superimposed to form the prediction result for precipitation days. A case is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method described. The paper’s work can improve traffic forecasting accuracy of power supply service center, which has significant applicable value for optimized scheduling.关键词
供电服务中心/短期话务量预测/分层相似法/逐时降水/特征话务Key words
power supply service center/short-term traffic forecasting/layered similar forecasting method/hourly precipitation data/traffic quantity分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
邹云峰,罗欣,田诺,赵燃,李婧娇..用于供电服务中心短期话务量预测的分层相似法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,(1):70-75,6.
