电力系统保护与控制Issue(8)：73-80,8.
一种用于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的风电机组多状态可靠性模型
A multistage reliability model of wind turbines for sequential Monte Carlo simulation
摘要
Abstract
A multistage reliability model of wind turbine is built utilizing a systematic method based on Markov chain approach, considering the drawback of the traditional wind turbine reliability model in sequential Monte Carlo Simulation. The probability of occurrence and duration of each state can be obtained using the state transition rate between each output power state of wind turbine calculated out with the regional wind regime of wind farm and operation historical data of wind turbine. On this basis, the double sampling method for the sequential Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. The simulation program for multistage reliability model of wind turbine is compiled. Then it is compared with the commonly used two-state model based on a single sampling method. Simulation results verify the feasibility of the proposed model based on Markov method. It can reflect accurately the output power of the wind turbine of any duration under fault conditions, improve the accuracy and expand the application range of the simulation model.关键词
序贯蒙特卡罗仿真/可靠性模型/频率-持续时间方法/风电机组Key words
sequential Monte-Carlo simulation/reliability model/frequency and duration approach/wind turbine分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘文霞,蒋程,张建华,王昕伟,于雷,刘德先..一种用于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的风电机组多状态可靠性模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,(8):73-80,8.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2012AA050201) （863计划）
