极地研究Issue(4)：429-438,10.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.4.429
“北极航道”开通与中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力分析
THE IMPACT OF USING THE ARCTIC ROUTE ON TRADE IN CHINA AND ITS ACCESSIBLE AREAS
摘要
Abstract
This study used a modified gravity model to investigate the impact of waiting time and sea ice cover on shipping in terms of trade potential in China and the impact of using Arctic navigation .In this model , sailing time was sub-stituted for shipping distance to quantitatively evaluate the impact of using the Arctic route .The model results showed a negative correlation between sailing time and the total value of imports and exports .If sailing time was re-duced by 1%, the total volume of imports and exports was increased by 0 .659 0%.The presence of sea ice has a great impact on trade potential .With the present levels of sea ice , using the Arctic route could increase the trade potential of China by an average of 10.95%, and the area accessible for trade could be increased by 12.02%for the northern coastal area and 11.22%for the eastern coastal area .If the sea ice continues to decline as expected and results in complete opening of the Arctic route , China ’ s trade potential will likely increase by 20%or more in terms of accessible areas .关键词
北极航道/航行时间/海冰/贸易潜力/引力模型Key words
Arctic route/sailing time/sea ice/trade potential/gravity model引用本文复制引用
李珍,胡麦秀..“北极航道”开通与中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力分析[J].极地研究,2015,(4):429-438,10.基金项目
上海市浦江人才计划“北极航道”开通与中国的潜在战略利益研究项目（14PJC061）资助 （）
