摘要
Abstract
In view of the systemic deficiencies in current research of short term passenger flow forecast of urban rail transit, a forecast framework of short term passenger flow was constructed. Based on the collected data from the automatic fare collection (AFC) systems, the passenger flow at the stations and the network OD matrix were collected. On this basis, an assignment model of passenger flow for the network, combined with three types of the data sources, that is ,video data, station layout and train timetable, and considering the impact of the walking activities of passengers, was built, and the sectional passenger flow was estimated. Then, based on the analysis of the spacial and temporal characteristics of the passenger flows at station and section, the two passenger flows were forecasted respectively; Afterwards, the network passenger flow OD matrix was backstepped by the short term forecasting results of the passenger flows. Meanwhile, the GARCH model was introduced to analyze and to improve the forecast reliability.关键词
城市轨道交通/体系框架/短时客流预测/可靠性分析Key words
Urban rail transit/framework/short term passenger flow forecast/reliability analysis分类
交通工程
