江西农业学报Issue(7)：69-74,6.
东北地区农作物气候生产力对气候变化的时空响应
Temporal and Spatial Response of Crop Climate Productivity to Climate Changes in Northeastern China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 61 meteorological stations in northeastern China from 1956 to 2011, the paper analyzed the climate change trends in this area in the past 55 years, and got the space -time distribution of crop climate productivity by using Thomthwaite Memorial model and Kriging interpolation method , then predicted the trend of crop climate productivity in the future.The results showed that the linear tendency of temperature was at the rate of 0.320℃/10 a, and the linear tendency of precipitation was at the rate of -12.11 mm/10 a, which showed a clear trend of warming and drought;the crop climate productivity increased at the rate of 61.84 kg/(hm 2・ 10 a).In the northeastern area, the annual average air tempera-ture increased from north to south, climate tendency rate increased from southeast to northwest in general , and the annual precipita-tion decreased from southeast to northwest;for crop climate productivity, it showed a decreasing trend in the western region of Jilin , the northwestern region of Liaoning , and the eastern region of Inner Mongolia , but it showed an increasing trend in other regions .If the crop climate productivity in different regions was calculated respectively under various climate change backgrounds , warming and humidifying climate environment was most favorable for northeastern agriculture , and its yield was increased by 6.44%~17.19%;while the cold and dry climatic environment was most unfavorable , and its yield was decreased by 7.43%~26.92%.The warm and dry tendency in northwestern China was advantageous for the agricultural production in the short term , but it would increase the in-stability of agriculture in the long term.关键词
东北地区/气候暖干化/气候生产力/农作物Key words
Northeastern China/Warming and drying climate/Climatic productivity/Crop分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
韩晓敏,延军平..东北地区农作物气候生产力对气候变化的时空响应[J].江西农业学报,2013,(7):69-74,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性结构、机理与适应对策”（41171090）。 （）
