气象与环境学报Issue(5)：63-70,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2015.05.009
2014年春节期间江苏淮北地区气温预报误差成因分析
Forming reasons on temperature prediction error in Huaibei of Jiangsu province during the Spring Festival of 2014
摘要
Abstract
Based on conventional ground observational data,forecast products from European Center (EC),Ameri-ca GFS and T639 numerical models,the maximum air temperature prediction errors were analyzed.The result shows that the temperature was obviously overestimated during the Spring Festival from January 30 to February 2, 2014 in Huaibei of Jiangsu province.It has been found that during the Spring Festival of 2014,the strong warm temperature advection at middle and lower troposphere is favorable to increase temperature greatly.However,abun-dant low-level cloud,dense mist and serious pollution weaken the incoming solar radiation.The surface with low air temperature absorbs the heat from the air,thus counteracting the warming effects of warm temperature advection and inhibiting temperature from rising over Huaibei of Jiangsu province,even decreasing the local temperature. Temperature inversion layer tends to be presented vertically.Meanwhile,the thermal inversion layer is favorable to maintenance of stable stratification at boundary layer and weak wind condition at the ground layer,which are not favorable to diffusion of pollution and water vapor.As a result,the fog and haze are enhanced.All these form a cooling feedback.Low cloud,fog and haze as well as temperature inversion layer have great impact on variation of daily air temperature.Main reasons for temperature prediction error are as follows:it has difference between ob-served and simulated circulation by a numerical weather prediction model;relative humidity near surface layer is underestimated;forecast total cloud cover is less than the observed.Cooling effect of fog and haze is not predicted. Strong warm temperature advection raises air temperature at 850 hPa.However,when surface air temperature is low,the surface absorbs heat from the air,thus leading to weak warming of surface air.The relationships of air temperature at 850 hPa and surface air temperature is weakened.Therefore,the warming of strong warm tempera-ture advection is overestimated.Forecast for 2 m air temperature is excessively depended on daily forecast products from EC and GFS models and so on.Circulation and parameters of the numerical forecast products has not been tested.关键词
预报误差/温度平流/低云/雾霾/逆温层Key words
Prediction error/Temperature advection/Low cloud/Fog and haze/Temperature inversion layer分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈圣稢,姜麟,韩桂荣,赵凯,金小霞..2014年春节期间江苏淮北地区气温预报误差成因分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,(5):63-70,8.基金项目
江苏省环保厅2014年度环保可研课题（2014021）和江苏省科技厅科技支撑计划社会发展重大研究项目（BE2012771）共同资助。 （）
