南京师大学报（自然科学版）Issue(3)：114-119,134,7.
基于EEMD的我国入境旅游与经济增长的多尺度对比研究
The Multi-Scale Comparison Between Chinese Inbound Tourism and Economic Growth Based on EEMD
摘要
Abstract
The correct cognition of long-term fluctuation of Chinese inbound tourism,economic growth and their relation⁃ship has important theoretical and practical significance on future inbound tourism development. This paper collected monthly data of foreign exchange revenue of inbound tourism,inbound tourist arrivals,GDP and the inbound tourism rev⁃enue′s share of GDP from January in 2000 to December in 2014,based on which the multi-time scale fluctuation of in⁃bound tourism,economic growth and their relationship were studied through the method of ensemble empirical mode de⁃composition(EEMD). The results showed that:(1)The high frequency fluctuation with periods of approximate 3,6,12 months are decomposed from long-term time series of inbound tourism revenue,inbound tourist arrivals,GDP and the in⁃bound tourism revenue′s share of GDP,while the contribution of high frequency fluctuation vary widely in every data se⁃ries.(2)The sustained rapid growth is the main change characteristics in data series of inbound tourism revenue,while the high frequency fluctuation in all time scale is the main change feature in inbound tourist arrivals.(3)GDP has al⁃ways maintained a momentum of rapid growth,the periodic fluctuation can be ignored due to two small variance contribu⁃tion. The inbound tourism revenue′s share of GDP has the main periodic fluctuation feature with high frequency,supple⁃mented by the low frequency fluctuation,and shows a discernible decline trend in the future.(4)Tourism consumption structure adjustment and per-capita consumption enhancement are the keys to improve Chinese inbound tourism income.关键词
集合经验模态分解(EEMD)/入境旅游收入/入境旅游人数/GDP/多尺度Key words
EEMD/inbound tourism revenue/inbound tourist arrivals/GDP/multi-scale分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈玲玲,何亮,李玉霞..基于EEMD的我国入境旅游与经济增长的多尺度对比研究[J].南京师大学报（自然科学版）,2015,(3):114-119,134,7.基金项目
教育部人文社科研究青年基金 （）
