农业工程学报Issue(17)：240-247,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2013.17.031
基于区间优化模型的土地利用结构弹性区间测算
Calculation of elastic interval of land use structure based on interval optimization model
摘要
Abstract
Uncertainty is normally ignored in land use planning, leading to the over-tight constraints, and the failure of the plan. Although scholars have paid attention to the elastic space of the planning, little has been done to calculate the magnitude of the space. This paper attempts to measure the elastic space of the land use structure using the spatial optimization model based on the consideration of uncertainty, so as to assist the designation of the elastic space of land use planning. The land use structure can be view as the outcome of the social and economic activities that are practiced on the land, thus social and economic activities and land use structure can be taken as the independent variables and dependent variables, respectively. Since the index of social and economic activities is subject to uncertainty, the land use structure is also subject to uncertainty, and this uncertainty can be reflected in the elastic space of land use structure. <br> This paper begins with an introduction of the definition of a spatial optimization model and the standard form used in the study. It then proceeds to the determination of the magnitude of the space in the spatial optimization model. We obtained the distribution of the uncertainty index by conducting a survey among the experts who have a good knowledge concerning the local land use. We then calculated the magnitude of the space when the probability equals 80% (the upper and lower limit is the 90% and 10% quantile in the distribution of the uncertainty index). The best optimal value and the worst optimal value of land use and the corresponding land use structure can be calculated using the spatial optimal model. Finally, based on the space composed of the two types of land use structure, the elastic space that meets the requirement of an effective vector density can be calculated using the software. This space is the elastic space of land use when the uncertainty index equals 80%. <br> We found that:1) The best optimal value of the land use for Yangzhou City is 1.72×109 thousand yuan, and the worst optimal value of the land use is 6.77×108 thousand Chinese yuan;2) The contribution of different types of land use to the uncertainty is measured by the magnitude of the space, with the water area, the forest land, and the land for transportation have made the largest contribution to the uncertainty, and the unused land has made the least contribution;3) The sensitivity to the uncertainty is measured by the ratio of the magnitude of the space to the area of the land that is used at present, with the forest land and the land used for transportation are among those are most sensitive to the uncertainty, and the farm land is among those are least sensitive to the uncertainty.关键词
土地利用/测算/模型/土地利用结构/不确定性/区间优化模型/弹性区间Key words
Land use/calculations/models/land use structure/uncertainty/spatial optimization model/elastic space分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李鑫,欧名豪,严思齐..基于区间优化模型的土地利用结构弹性区间测算[J].农业工程学报,2013,(17):240-247,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目 （）
