情报杂志Issue(8)：155-158,149,5.
基于情景的突发事件链构建方法*
A Scenario-based Construction Method of Emergency Event Chain
摘要
Abstract
Lacking of precursor, emergency events do harm to human society greatly. Emergency event chain, constituted by secondary e-vents, has severe negative effects on human race. The chain structure of emergency event is complex and varies frequently, and it is diffi-cult to judge the evolution path for emergency events. Drawing on the common knowledge model, using knowledge element to express scenario and events, the paper analyzes the interaction between scenario and events and the evolution of events based on the relationship of knowledge element. Using data and rule as drive, a scenario-based construction method of emergency event chain is proposed. The meth-od supports“scenario-response” policy decision-making. At last, a case study is presented.关键词
突发事件/知识元/情景/突发事件链Key words
emergency event/knowledge element/scenario/emergency event chain分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马骁霏,仲秋雁,曲毅,王宁,王延章..基于情景的突发事件链构建方法*[J].情报杂志,2013,(8):155-158,149,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目“非常规突发事件演化分析和应对决策的支持模型集成原理与方法”(编号:91024029)。 （编号:91024029）
