气象科技进展Issue(3)：40-45,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2013.03.006
强对流天气预报检验新方法在上海的应用尝试
Applications of a New Verification Method for Severe Convection Forecasting and Nowcasting in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
To compensate for the disadvantages of the conventional verification methods and find the potential value of forecasts, a new verification method is developed for severe convection forecasting and nowcasting. This method is based on the characteristics of severe convective weather, the requirements of the very short-term forecasting and nowcasting operations, and performance evaluation of user surveys. In the approach of the method, forecasts for severe convection are compared to the observations aiming at their differences in intensity, area, distance, morphology and similarity. Several verification methods have been adopted for grid-based, site-based, and probabilistic forecasts. A forecast adjustment and integration method is also developed based on preference and tendency of users, and some verification indices and standards have been established. A series of operational verification products of this new method are developed for the national severe convection forecasting operations. This paper describes the design of this new method and its algorithms, as well as its application in Shanghai.关键词
强对流/检验/目标对象检验法Key words
severe convection/verification/objective-based diagnostic evaluation引用本文复制引用
戴建华,茅懋,邵玲玲,李佳..强对流天气预报检验新方法在上海的应用尝试[J].气象科技进展,2013,(3):40-45,6.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006002）；中国气象局业务建设项目“灾害天气短时临近预报预警业务系统（SWAN）版本升级建设”；中国气象局创新团队“全国强对流预报专家团队”项目 （）
