人口与经济Issue(6)：114-122,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2015.06.012
社会保障水平对人口结构的影响--理论与实证的分析
The Impact of Social Security Level on Demographic Structure:Theory and Empirical Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Social security has played an important role in demographic structure. This paper found micro⁃to⁃macro benchmark about social security level and demographic structure, empirical analysis based on the data of China and ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2013 by GMM model. Empirical conclusions have shown that social security replacement rates are raised because social security level was increasing in China and ASEAN countries in recent years. Social security replacement rates depress total fertility rate and family married status by the change of social security rate, and can’ t be fully neutralized by counteracting inter⁃temporal or intergenerational transfers. Policy suggestions based on the analysis are proposed.关键词
社会保障水平/社会保障替代率/结婚概率/总和生育率Key words
social security level/social security replacement rates/married probability/total fertility rate分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王浩名,柳清瑞..社会保障水平对人口结构的影响--理论与实证的分析[J].人口与经济,2015,(6):114-122,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目“城乡社会保障体系协调发展研究”（11ZD014）；内蒙古财经大学发展研究所资助项目（ IIER）。 （）
