上海国土资源Issue(2)：80-83,96,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2013.02.019
安徽省旱灾区划与农业经济损益分析
Analysis of the Relationship between Drought and Agricultural Economy Cost/Benefit in Anhui Province
摘要
Abstract
The uneven distribution and low rate of water resource utilization was the primary reason for the drought that occurred in Anhui province. Drought regionalization is an important basis of water conservation system planning and of scientific management to improve the drought-resistance of agricultural systems. Drought has major, direct impacts on food production, drinking water for rural residents and livestock, and rural economic development. This paper discusses current problems and issues regarding the management of drought resistance and, based on a study of the efficiency and consequences of the current campaign against the effects of drought, offers suggestions for further improving the efficiency of drought-resistant measures and for reducing economic losses. Cointegration analysis of time series data for two indicators of drought resistance with agricultural economic loss data for Anhui province from 1990 to 2007 reveals that the two indicators are related in a long-term equilibrium, and the error correction model shows a strong ability for self-adjustment equilibrium to be attained over short timescales. The results indicate that drought-resistant measures play an important positive role in reducing agricultural economic losses.关键词
水资源/旱灾/风险区划/农业经济/损益分析/协整理论Key words
water resources/drought/risk division/agricultural economy/cost-benefit analysis/co-integration theory分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李金鑫,蒋尚明,杜云,费振宇,金菊良..安徽省旱灾区划与农业经济损益分析[J].上海国土资源,2013,(2):80-83,96,5.基金项目
水利部重大基建前期项目“全国干旱区划及旱灾风险评估研究” （）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001043) （201001043）
中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金课题(LPM2011002) （LPM2011002）
