水利学报Issue(1)：73-82,10.
水文学确定性和不确定性方法及其集合研究进展
Progress of certainty and uncertainty methods of hydrologic and the framework of ensemble analysis
摘要
Abstract
In the background of climate change and human activities,the frequency of extreme hydrological events is increased,the occurrence time is different and the loss caused by the disaster is more serious. It is important to simulate and predict the hydrology process with the scientific and reasonable technological methods. This paper reviewed the development courses of both hydrological certainty and uncertainty meth⁃ods,and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of methods. Based on the above,the framework for the ensemble of certainty and uncertainty methods is put forward, including the internal en⁃semble of different uncertainty method, and the external ensemble of certainty methods and uncertainty methods. At last,some key problems during the process of ensemble were proposed.关键词
变化环境/确定性/不确定性/集合Key words
environmental change/certainty/uncertainty/ensemble分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
严登华,袁喆,王浩,杨志勇..水文学确定性和不确定性方法及其集合研究进展[J].水利学报,2013,(1):73-82,10.基金项目
创新方法工作专项项目(2009IM020100、2011IM011000) （2009IM020100、2011IM011000）
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB951102) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金项目(51021066,51009148) （51021066,51009148）
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03) （2012BAC19B03）
