水利学报Issue(3)：268-275,8.
考虑历史洪水的武江超定量洪水频率分析
POT flood frequency analysis with historical floods in Wujiang River
摘要
Abstract
Flood frequency analysis of peak-over-threshold (POT) series with historical floods can maxi⁃mize the use of flood information,and effectively improve the accuracy of flood frequency analysis. In this paper,taking Lishi (2) station in the Wujiang River Basin as an example,use of historical information in POT flood frequency analysis is considered. The POT samples are fitted by the generalized Pareto (GP) dis⁃tribution with a Poisson model for arrival,using L-moment (L-M) method to estimate distribution parame⁃ters. The result shows that choosing 1 079m3/s as the threshold can maximize the stability of the estimation for POT distribution parameters and meet the hypothesis of independence. Comparison between POT method with and without historical floods shows that the application of historical floods does improve the fitting of large flood in POT method. Return period of“2006·07”flood estimated by POT method with historical floods is 501 years,while the estimate result of POT method without historical floods is 330 years,which seems that it’s necessary to consider historical floods in POT modeling. The goodness of fit of POT method is a little better than flood frequency analysis of annual maximum series (AMS),while both using histori⁃cal information.关键词
超定量/广义Pareto分布/门限值/历史洪水/线性矩法Key words
peak-over-threshold/generalized Pareto distribution/threshold/historical flood/L-moment method分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张丽娟,陈晓宏,叶长青,张家鸣..考虑历史洪水的武江超定量洪水频率分析[J].水利学报,2013,(3):268-275,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点和重大国际合作项目(50839005、51210013) （50839005、51210013）
广东省科技厅项目(2010B050300010) （2010B050300010）
广东省水利科技创新项目(2009-39) （2009-39）
中山大学重大项目培育和新兴交叉学科项目(10lgzd11) （10lgzd11）
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428405) （973）
