水利学报Issue(5)：542-548,7.
按风险率模型分析的设计雨型
Establishment of design hyetographs based on risk probability models
摘要
Abstract
Design hyetograph is the essential element for storm flood calculation. To get a more reasonable design hyetograph, this paper presents a risk probability model for calculating the design hyetograph. As a case study using the hourly rainfall data in Shenzhen from 1969 to 2002,the design hyetographs of different return period were analyzed based on the risk probability models and compared them with the traditional methods. The main achievements are summarized as follows:(1)The results show that there are risk problems for the design hyetograph enlarging method by the same multiple and fuzzy cluster analysis method used in Shenzhen;(2)SCS-Ⅱ method used for calculation of design hyetograph is not fit for use in Shenzhen because of too high security;(3)The design hyetograph enlarging method by the same frequency and risk probability analysis method (RADH) have similar rainfall structure, but the differences certainly exist in rainfall peak design;(4)The RADH method is reasonable and will provide reference for the computation of design hyetograph.关键词
设计雨型/重现期/风险率/SCS方法/模糊聚类分析方法/同倍比放大法/同频率放大法Key words
design hyetograph/return period/risk probability/SCS method/fuzzy cluster analysis method/same multiple amplification method/same frequency amplification method分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨星,朱大栋,李朝方,刘志龙..按风险率模型分析的设计雨型[J].水利学报,2013,(5):542-548,7.基金项目
水利部公益性项目（201001070）；深圳市水务发展中长期战略研究项目 （）
