水利学报Issue(6)：664-672,9.
基于调度规则的水库群供水能力与风险分析
The maximum water-supply yield of the multi-reservoir system under the operating policy control with risk analysis
摘要
Abstract
In view of the complex structure and hierarchy characteristics of the risk assessment system for multi-reservoir water-supply system, this paper employs the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to deter⁃mine the weight of the water-supply risk indexes for each water users. After that, an optimization model for multi-reservoir operation is constructed with the objective function of minimizing the water-supply risk. In this study, a general framework is proposed for exploring the maximum water-supply yield of the multi-reservoir system and analyzing water-supply risk, which consists of four parts:(1)generation of in⁃flow and agriculture water use data by stochastic hydrological model;(2)calculation of the aggregated evalu⁃ation index for water-supply risk for multi-reservoir system;(3)optimization of the hedging rule curves for equivalent reservoir and allocation of common water demand among individual reservoirs;(4)determination of the allocation rule for common water users. The different amounts of water demand for domestic and in⁃dustrial uses are adopted as the input data of the operation model to analyze the relationship between the water supply amount and water supply risk. In this way,the maximum water-supply yield within the allow⁃able risk can be obtained. A multi-reservoir water-supply system in North China is taken as the case study to verify the reasonability and efficacy of the proposed framework.关键词
调度规则/水库群/供水能力/供水风险/层次分析法/SCE-UA 算法Key words
reservoir operating policy/multi-reservoir/safe yield/water-supply risk/analytical hierarchy process/SCE-UA分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郭旭宁,胡铁松,曾祥,杜永鑫..基于调度规则的水库群供水能力与风险分析[J].水利学报,2013,(6):664-672,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（71171151、11201039、51179130）；教育部博士点基金项目（20100141110061）；武汉大学博士研究生短期出国（境）研修专项经费；武汉大学2008、2012年博士研究生（含1+4）自主科研项目 （）
