中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(5)：1-5,5.DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2015.05.0001
国际油价波动与中国石油进口影响关系分析
Analysis of the Relationship Between International Oil Price Fluctuation and China Oil Import
摘要
Abstract
Based on the average international oil price month data and China oil import month data from January, 2001 to October, 2014, this paper studies the econometric relationship between oil price and China oil import by using the structural vector auto regression model.The result shows that there exists positive correlation and a two-way Granger causality relationship between oil price and China oil import and oil price fluctuation has a greater influence on China oil import than that of China oil import on oil price. Since recently international oil price has dropped sharply and oil import in large scale will not cause oil price to rebound, we should take chance to increase oil import and to enlarge oil reserve, which also gives China oil enterprise a good change to implement resource integration and strategic transformation.关键词
国际油价波动/石油进口/结构向量自回归模型/石油储备Key words
international oil price fluctuation/oil import/structural vector auto regression model/oil reserve分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
高新伟,江兆龙,纪瑶..国际油价波动与中国石油进口影响关系分析[J].中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2015,(5):1-5,5.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目（14BJL045）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（15CX08012A）；东营市社科联资助项目（ DYSK（2015）第12号） （）
