石油勘探与开发Issue(2)：215-219,5.DOI:10.11698/PED.2013.02.11
基于元建模的裂缝性气藏累计产量预测
Prediction of accumulated outflow from a fractured hydrocarbon reservoir using metamodeling
Seifi A 1Kazemzadeh M B 1Mohammadi H1
作者信息
- 1. 伊朗Amirkabir科技大学工业工程系
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Three metamodels were established for predicting accumulated outflow from a fractured hydrocarbon reservoir over a planning horizon of 18 years, and the models were validated and compared using accumulated outflow predicted by numerical simulation. The reservoir was simulated and its basic parameters (porosity, permeability and water saturation) were estimated. The accumulated outflow over 18 years of a well in the reservoir was expressed as a function of the reservoir parameters. Low potential points were excluded using HIP (Hydrocarbon in Place) equation and 25 high potential points were chosen as design points using maximum entropy design. Three kinds of metamodels (quadratic model, multiplicative model and radial basis function model) were built and the accumulated outflows of 25 design points and 7 test points were predicted based on the models. The prediction results show that all of the three models can accurately predict the accumulated outflow of the reservoir studied in this paper and the radial basis function model outperforms the other two metamodels. Besides, the calculating time of the metamodeling method is much less than that of the numerical simulation.关键词
元建模/径向基函数/裂缝性气藏/产量预测Key words
metamodeling/radial basis function/fractured hydrocarbon reservoir/outflow prediction分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
Seifi A,Kazemzadeh M B,Mohammadi H..基于元建模的裂缝性气藏累计产量预测[J].石油勘探与开发,2013,(2):215-219,5.
