水资源与水工程学报2015，Vol.26Issue(5)：35-39,5.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.05.07
鄱阳湖流域气候变化及其对入湖径流量的影响
Climate change and its influence on runoff in Poyang Lake watershed
摘要
Abstract
In order to assess the effect of future climatic variation on runoff , the paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation trends of climate and established a statistical model to study its impacts on the runoff by using the observational data of weather station and the annual runoff series (1961-2010 ) of five hydrologi-cal gauging stations within Poyang Lake watershed .The results indicated that annual temperature presents the obvious rising trend;it presents the significant increase especially in winter .Precipitation and its intensi-ty showed a slightly upward trend , and the risk of flood is increasing .The runoff in Poyang Lake watershed showed the increase trend , the temporal and spatial distribution became more unbalanced under the influ-ence of rising temperature and increasing precipitation .Model results show that the relationship between runoff and precipitation is non -linear .Runoff has a strong sensitivity to rainfall variation .Increased pre-cipitation has been more significant influence on runoff than decreased precipitation , which indicated that the precipitation changes played an important role in causing different effects of runoff .Under the condition of specified precipitation scenarios , the shifting relationship between the runoff and the temperature is line-ar.It is not obvious that temperature change impacts runoff .Under the future scenarios of climate change , the runoff Poyang Lake watershed appears obvious increase trend under the scenarios of high discharge A2and RCP8.5, while the runoff is lower than other emission scenarios until 2050.关键词
气候变化/径流量/降水量/鄱阳湖流域Key words
climate change/runoff/precipitation/Poyang Lake watershed分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
涂安国,杨洁,李英,莫明浩..鄱阳湖流域气候变化及其对入湖径流量的影响[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(5):35-39,5.基金项目
江西省水利科技项目((KT201112) （(KT201112）
水利部公益性行业项目(201401051、201301050) （201401051、201301050）
