沙漠与绿洲气象Issue(1)：12-15,4.
T639和德国模式对新疆大降水预报的检验
Contrast Test of Precipitation Forecast for Xinjiang Between T639 and the Germany Numerical Model
牟欢 1阿不力米提江·阿布力克木 1赵凤环1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
The precipitation forecast products of T639 and the Germany namerical model were classified and tested with six episodes of heavy precipitation in Xinjiang in 2011. The results show that the two models have good instructive meaning to forecast of the precipitation location and centers.The fine and rain forecast accuracy rate of Germany namerical model was 80.49% which is higher than T639 model for 24 hours total precipitation, and heavy precipitation forecast accuracy of the two models were close, which was about 44%.But the torrential precipitation forecast accuracy of T639 model (29.07%)was obviously better than the Germany namerical model. and the two have the highest Ts-scores for 48-72 hours.关键词
降水预报/检验/T639模式/德国模式/新疆Key words
precipitation forecast/verification/T639 model/Germany numerical model/Xinjiang分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
牟欢,阿不力米提江·阿布力克木,赵凤环..T639和德国模式对新疆大降水预报的检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,(1):12-15,4.
