中国电机工程学报Issue(22)：5731-5739,9.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.22.007
基于多尺度空间分辨率的空间负荷预测误差评价方法
Method of Spatial Load Forecasting Error Evaluation Based on the Multi-scale Spatial Resolution
摘要
Abstract
Faced with the difficult problem how to evaluate spatial error in spatial load forecasting (SLF), the error evaluation method of SLF based on the multi-scale spatial resolution was proposed. Considering local forecasting error impacts on the SLF error of the whole, how to calculate local forecasting error impact on the predicted load value of another location was studied firstly. The extreme scenarios were used as boundary conditions to analyze the error map of SLF results. Under different spatial resolutions, it is brought to light that the degree of perception is different for the same spatial error and the evolution regular changes to be even completely opposite. Aiming at the structure and the supply capacity of existing power grid, and the load level of planning target-year, spatial error evaluation mechanism was established. At the same time, the evaluation index for SLF error was provided. The method of spatial load forecasting error evaluation based on the multi-scale spatial resolution was applied to spatial load forecasting in an administrative region of a northeast city, and is proved to be effective.关键词
空间负荷预测/地理信息系统/电力负荷空间分辨率/多尺度/空间误差/电力系统规划Key words
spatial load forecasting (SLF)/geographic information system (GIS)/spatial resolution of electric load (SREL)/multi-scale/spatial error/power system planning分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
肖白,蒲睿,穆钢..基于多尺度空间分辨率的空间负荷预测误差评价方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,(22):5731-5739,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51177009)；吉林省自然科学基金项目(20140101079JC)。Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51177009) （51177009）
Jilin Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (20140101079JC) （20140101079JC）
