灾害学Issue(4)：1-11,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.04.001
自然灾害动态风险分析的一个虚拟案例
A Virtual Case Study to Analyze Dynamic Risks of Natural Disasters
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,with the economic loss caused by typhoons occurred in Zhejiang,China,as the background,a virtual case of typhoon dynamic risk is given,in which the time and landing sites of the typhoons are different.Employed a model for dynamic risk analysis derived from a probabilistic risk model,and using the normal diffusion method to process data,we study the case.The main works in the study are to estimate a probability dis-tribution of typhoon strength under conditions of different months,and to estimate loss of a risk-bearing body with respect to different strength typhoons and different landing situations.Then,coupling of the conditional probability distribution and the loss matrix,we calculate the dynamic risk in sense of expected loss.Non-dynamic risk analysis can only give a single risk value during the year,while the dynamic risk analysis can provide more information. This paper also discusses the system error of probability risks,and suggests exploring the Internet of intelligences for dynamic risk analysis.关键词
动态风险/台风/正态扩散/条件概率分布/风险承受体/损失矩阵/智联网Key words
dynamic risk/typhoon/normal diffusion/conditional probability distribution/risk-bearing body/loss matrix/Internet of Intelligences分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
黄崇福..自然灾害动态风险分析的一个虚拟案例[J].灾害学,2015,(4):1-11,11.基金项目
国家重大科学研究计划（“九七三”）“全球变化与环境风险演变过程与综合评估模型” （）
