摘要
Abstract
A method for power system probabilistic reliability assessment based on PEM is proposed in this paper, which provides new ideas and methods for the improvement and application of reliability assessment. The state of a element is defined by using the ratio of its operation capacity to rated capacity , and the proba-bility density function of the random variable is defined , such that a discrete random variable which expresses the state of the element is expanded to a continuous random variable , which enables the definition in whole real region and conformity with original definition in the points of its normal and outage states. The calculation method of reliability index at capacity reduction state of system elements is given to meet the requirement of calculation by point estimation. Through analysis on the error of PEM , a method called m-order migration for estimation points is put forward, which can reduce the calculation error of point estimation method applied in power system reliability assessment. Through comparison between examples , the analytic method and the simulation method, the practicability and validity of the approach are verified.关键词
电力系统/可靠性评估/点估计法/概率可靠性指标Key words
power system/reliability assessment/point estimate method/probabilistic reliability index分类
信息技术与安全科学
