中山大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(5)：130-137,8.DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2015.05.024
基于 Copula 函数的韩江流域干支流洪水遭遇分析
Copula Function-Based Flood Coincidence Probability Analysis for Mainstream and Tributary of the Hanjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Hanjiang river has been played an important role in economic and social development in Guangdong Province.It is quite necessary to find out the characteristics,occurrences and the dynamic rule of flood along this river for flood control and protection.In this paper,daily streamflow data from three hydrological stations during 1959 -2000 were analyzed using the copula function to investigate the probability behavior of the flood coincidence in the Hanjiang river basin.The flood characteristics were defined as annual maximum daily flow,which were analyzed through the joint return periods,the coinci-dence risk of flood magnitudes and conditional probability.Obtained results showed:① during the same return period,the coincidence risk of flood magnitudes of Chaoan and Hengshan stations was bigger than Chaoan and Xikou stations,and that of Hengshan and Xikou is the smallest.② the flood of the Meijiang accounted for a larger proportion in Chaoan station than in the Tingjiang.③ based on joint distribution of the three stations,diverse streamflow combination could be obtained under certain joint return periods and current return periods,as well as the probabilities of any streamflow combination.关键词
多变量水文分析/Copula 函数/洪水遭遇/韩江流域Key words
multivariate hydrological analysis/copula functions/flood coincidence/Hanjiang Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
关帅,林颖妍,查悉妮,丁波,陶楠,刘祖发..基于 Copula 函数的韩江流域干支流洪水遭遇分析[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）,2015,(5):130-137,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目 （）
