计算机技术与发展2015，Vol.25Issue(12)：147-151,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-629X.2015.12.033
基于ARIMA-BP组合模型的民航旅客运输量预测
Prediction of Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Volume Based on ARIMA-BP Combined Model
摘要
Abstract
Civil aviation passenger transport is directly related to the amount of the procurement of aircraft,airport construction scale,na-tional economic development etc. Only for Chinese civil aviation passenger transport volume to make more accurate predictions,airports, airlines and related enterprises can accurately grasp the development trend of the industry and make proper competition and investment strategy. With what method to analyze and accurately predict civil aviation passenger transport volume is most concerned. First elaborated the method and steps of ARIMA-BP combined model in this paper,and then in 2005 January to 2013 December,took civil aviation pas-senger transport volume data as the training set,established ARIMA and ARIMA-BP combination model,selected in 2014 January to 2014 December,civil aviation passenger transport volume data as a test set to evaluate model prediction effect. Simulation results show that ARIMA-BP model is better than ARIMA model in forecast effect. This model has higher reliability and practicability,which has cer-tain guiding effect on the prediction of civil aviation passenger transport volume.关键词
aRIMa模型/aRIMa-BP模型/预测/民航旅客运输量Key words
ARIMA model/ARIMA-BP model/predicting/civil aviation passenger transport volume分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
尧姚,陶静,李毅..基于ARIMA-BP组合模型的民航旅客运输量预测[J].计算机技术与发展,2015,25(12):147-151,5.基金项目
国家"863冶高技术发展计划项目(2013aa013902) （2013aa013902）
