干旱地区农业研究Issue(6)：254-256,3.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.06.42
宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量时间序列预测模型研究
Research on time series prediction model of annual return water volume in Qingtongxia irrigation area
摘要
Abstract
In order to address the prediction problem of return water in Qingtongxia irrigation area,this paper ana-lyzed the properties of annual return water volume and built a prediction model by time series method.The research re-sults showed that the return water volume exhibited a correlation pattern between years.Its time series was a non-white noise and non-stationary series,and its first-order differential sequence was a non-white noise and stationary series.As a result,a time series prediction model of annual return water volume had been established with an average relative simula-tion error of 5 .66% and a relative prediction error up to 5%,demonstrating the high simulation and prediction accuracy of this model.Thereby,it could be used for the prediction of annual return water in irrigation area.关键词
退水量/预测/时间序列/青铜峡灌区Key words
return water volume/prediction/time series/Qingtongxia irrigation area分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
赵新宇,刘青,费良军..宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量时间序列预测模型研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,(6):254-256,3.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金项目（2010GZC0184）；江西重点科技成果转化项目 （）
