中国全科医学2016，Vol.19Issue(1)：12-18,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9572.2016.01.003
社区卫生服务未来发展趋势的建模与仿真研究
Model Building and Simulation of the Development Trend of Community Health Services in China
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the pattern and trend of the future development of community health services ( CHS) .Methods The study focused on the promotion of "six-in-one"function of CHS.Based on the characteristics and development status of CHS and using the simulation theory and method of system dynamics , the kernel variables of the development of CHS system were determined , and the policy simulation models and variable equation were established within the inner structure of the system .By using the simulation software Vensim , the simulation and prediction of the future development trend of CHS were made .Results Four subsystems of the normal function of CHS were established , including medical services , human resources , medical equipment and medical equipments .The number of people receiving diagnosis and treatment and the number of people being hospitalized are the kernel variables of the subsystem of medical resources ; the number of health workers is the kernel variable of the subsystem of human resources; the total value of equipment worth more ten thousand yuan is the kernel variable of subsystem of medical equipment; the gap between revenues and expenditures is the kernel variable of the subsystem of economic system .The number of people receiving diagnosis and treatment , the number of people being hospitalized , the number of health workers , the total value of equipment worth more ten thousand yuan and the gap between revenues and expenditures in 2020 are 2 227.11 million, 13.976 million, 7 281.85 million, 94 701.5 million and -1 974.99 million.Conclusion The number of people receiving diagnosis and treatment , the number of people being hospitalized , the number of health workers and the total value of equipment worth more ten thousand yuan have been increasing .The gap between revenues and expenditures has up and downs , while the fluctuation is not distinct , which is common due to the objective law of balance between income and payment .关键词
社区卫生服务/发展趋势/系统动力学/仿真研究Key words
Community health services/Development trend/System dynamics/Simulation study分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
李丽清,卢祖洵,邬丹,龚言红..社区卫生服务未来发展趋势的建模与仿真研究[J].中国全科医学,2016,19(1):12-18,7.基金项目
2011国家自然科学基金资助项目(71163016) （71163016）
2013国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373090) （71373090）
